Galaxy Says Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over at $79,510
Galaxy Digital says bitcoin's bear market already ended in June, even though the price slipped to $79,510 (USD) on 27 October 2026. For anyone holding bitcoin in a wallet, that call turns a flat, uncertain stretch into what Galaxy frames as a buying window.
What actually happened
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, wrote that the bear market ended in June and bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase, according to CoinDesk. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC since bitcoin bottomed under $58,000 in June. Net long exposure from asset managers on CME futures fell 57% from its peak near bitcoin's record high. Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks, after 44 weeks below it, per The Block. Galaxy warned a weekly close under $76,540 would break its thesis. StoneX raised its Strive price target to $43 (USD) from $32 (USD). Strategy paused bitcoin buying and repurchased $205 million (USD) of STRC preferred shares.
How we got here
Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 (USD) before a long slide tested market confidence. By June 2026 it had fallen under $58,000, the point Galaxy now calls the cycle bottom. Since then bitcoin has risen 38%, though it stays about 35% below its record. Reaching that record again would take a 53% gain from here, by Galaxy's own math. The firm cites fading selling from long-term holders and lower leverage as signs the market has cleared weak hands, a pattern it says preceded past rallies. Strategy's pause follows months of steady buying.
Why this matters for you
For everyday wallet holders, Galaxy's view turns the recent drift into a pause inside a longer uptrend, not a collapse. If that holds, holding near today's price could look favorable later, though Galaxy's own warning line sits at $76,540. For treasury firms, signals diverge: StoneX turned more bullish on Strive, while Strategy stepped back from active buying. Anyone holding bitcoin through an ETF should note the 87,000 BTC added since June, a sign of steady demand rather than panic trading.
The bigger question
If rising government debt genuinely strengthens the case for a fixed-supply asset like bitcoin, as Galaxy argues, how long can price lag that structural story before catching up? Quiet markets often price in more certainty than they deserve. The open question is whether patient holders outlast short-term doubt, or whether today's drift near $79,510 just reflects a market waiting for a catalyst nobody has named yet.
What to watch
Galaxy's key level is a weekly close below $76,540, which would challenge its bullish call. Bitcoin traded at $79,510 on 27 October 2026, down 1.01% over 24 hours. Watch whether ETF inflows keep pace with the 87,000 BTC added since June, and whether Strategy resumes buying. No fixed date applies; the next test comes with bitcoin's next weekly close.
